I was recently talking to a friend of mine about, what else? the up coming football season. And he expressed his concern about the Packers' defense, which doesn't appear as if they're actually getting any better under Bates' system; and the other major concern of course, the shaky at best offensive line.
And while what he said is very true; if the O line doesn't pull together and protect Favre this season, it most certainly could be Favre's last year -- he's too old to start getting injured now -- Here's something else to ponder a moment ... If that O line doesn't shape up this could be Sherman and Green's last year as well.
Just looking at the schedule, in my humble opinion, if we go 5-11 we'll be extremely lucky. Of course, that's a rough guess depending on what the Lions do. Before the pre-season this year I was thinking they might have a legitimate shot at the division title, but so far they haven't impressed me much. Which bodes the question, if Sherman has a bad year, say going 5-11 or even 6-10, will that signal his swan song in Green Bay? I think Thompson is just waiting for an excuse to get rid of him. The fact he's got a pretty decent winning percentage, though not necessarily of his doing, makes it pretty tough for the GM to fire him. But wait for him to stumble--just once and I seriously believe it's see ya later Mr. Sherman.
And with Green's contract up at season's end, will he want to stick around in a floundering and rebuilding system for probably peanuts? I don't think so. Which might set up a very interesting situation. Green is ranked second on the Packers’ all-time rushing list with 6,848 yards, needing just 1,360 to pass Hall of Famer Jim Taylor’s record (8,207). Depending on how effective the offensive line turns out to be this year, what happens if he comes within, say, three hundred yards of beating the record this year? Does that sway him to come back and sign another extension with the club just so he can beat the record next year? As far as I know, Green has never been about records, but you have to admit this would be a pretty tempting record to own.
Just a thought.
Anyway, getting back to my previous point, and trust me I hate to even contemplate it myself because is such a bitter pill to swallow, but I do believe our run of division supremacy is over for a while depending on how fast Rodgers comes of age. And right now I'm not betting on that being any time soon.
Now let me make one thing perfectly clear here and now, I am not giving up on the season even before it gets started. With Favre at the helm, anything is possible. But truthfully, I am a rational kind of guy, for the most part, and the future for the Packers organization doesn't look all that promising on the surface. If you take a closer look at a few tell tale things, you can see that the organization is in tune with this fact as well.
For instance, Sherman's contract. Yes, he's in the fold for two more years which means he's not a lame duck coach, or as some were calling it ... being a "free agent coach" going into the season, which translates into ...if he has a good year another team looking for a good coach wouldn't be able to swoop in and snake him away with a bigger contract offer. He belongs to the Packers.
On the other hand, if Sherman has a sub-par season and Thompson wants to replace him -- to fire him while under a guaranteed two year contract, it's no big deal. They'd just have to pay him is last year's salary of $3 mill plus change. And for an organization that reportedly earned over $250 million last year, that's chump change.
So it's a win-win situation for the Packers having signed Sherman before the season. That does not mean they are committed to him, or his coaching ability. All it means is they've covered their backside no matter what happens.
An another tell-tail sign was the contract they just signed with Bubba Franks. It was reported as a Life-time contract. But wait, not so fast.... If you look closely, Franks' contract is heavily back loaded, the final $15.5 million is in the form of large base salaries over the final three seasons. Experts say his deal is actually a 4 year, $12.5 million contract. Why?
Franks will be 31 when his base salary jumps to $5 million for the 2009 season. He also is scheduled to make $5 million in 2010 and $5.5 million in 2011. The contract includes $7 million in bonus money, but not all of that comes in the form of a signing bonus because $1 million of it will be paid as a roster bonus next March.
Because signing bonuses can be prorated over no more than five years, the Packers could cut Franks after the fourth year, have only one-fifth of the bonus count on the 2009 salary cap and clear the final $15.5 million in salaries off their books. If they cut him after the fifth year, they wouldn't take any salary-cap hit and would wipe out $10.5 million in salaries from their cap. Not exactly a Life-time commitment in my books.
It appears the Green Bay organization is ready to follow whatever path the club takes according to the outcome of this year, maybe next. So I guess as Packer fans, it's the only thing we can do as well. Get ready for a rough season, and perhaps a couple of rebuilding seasons, and then pray for another miracle to fall in our laps. I mean, who knew Favre was going to be this good ... with bad hips no less? Rodgers could be a big surprise in hiding. And maybe there's another shining savior like Reggie just waiting to come riding into Green Bay and help take us to the Super Bowl again. (the problem there is, it might have been Corey Simon from the Eagles but the Packers a.k.a. Thompson won't pay the kind of bucks to bring him in so we'll never know. That could be a problem we didn't have with Wolf running the show)
But it did happen once, so there's always a chance it can happen again. We just need to have a little faith. But this is definitely a tell-tale season for a lot of reasons and we should be prepared to grab our highlights where we can. And I can think of a couple. Beating Minnesota (and showing Sharper the errors of his ways) would be one. And of course, there's always the games against our adversaries to the south. They are staring at another losing season. Boo hoo! I would love to be a double stab in their season. Because as we all know, da Bears still suck!
Anyway, in those famous words of Green Bay fans around the world: Go Pack!
Until next time, Keep Driving Forward.